Apple, NFC, iPhone 5, iPad 3, rumors, blah, blah, and more blah

Apple, NFC, iPad 3, iPhone 5…is it just us, or is it getting a little repetitive? Ever heard the phrase “there’s nothing to fear but fear itself?” We suggest it gets changed to “there’s nothing to Apple, but Apple itself” because at the end of the day all the speculation is just that, until we hear from Mr. Jobs. The frenzy field that emanates from Cupertino may block out the sun if it gets any more hyped, and the mastery of Apple is that it is generated because the company keeps quiet and plays dead until its ready to roll over and offer us a treat.

In a week where a bomber killed innocent people in Norway, the US is about to go broke, and Amy Winehouse passed away, we still found time for what seems to be a billion Apple rumors. Because that’s what’s important, right? Well, that and Rupert Murdoch getting a pie in his face because his media empire has been found to be sleazy. (Spoiler alert: Perhaps aside from the BBC and a few others, all mega media conglomerates are sleazy. It’s like gravity, it just is that way.)

We ourselves have written a myriad of articles on the business case for NFC in the iPad 3 and iPhone 5. We produced an infographic on the subject and reported the rumors faithfully. We are just as interested as everyone else, because this is Apple, the biggest consumer electronics brand on the face of the planet. However, over the last couple of weeks we held off of feeding the fire, sat back and watched as Apple mania continued to sweep through the blogosphere and news channels, and kept on keeping on with our little NFC blog, where all innovative companies matter and we especially get juiced if their inventions include contactless stuff. We had no imminent intentions of writing anything about Apple, its iPad 3 or its iPhone 5, because there has been no credible news about NFC. And then we saw the Bluetooth 4.0 rumors and couldn’t help but jump back in. One post can’t hurt, can it? We’ll quit tomorrow. Ah okay, we have a problem. Is there a clinic for Apple rumor addiction?

Apple, NXP, NFC, rumor, stocks and more Apple

NXP semi conductors reported its earnings  in February, and the NFC buzz appeared to be just that. NFC is gearing up to be huge and the partnership with Google made massive headlines, but the business just hasn’t organized itself enough to follow the buzz as yet. We bet the second half of 2011 will show a different story, but in February NXP’s stock traded at a lofty $34 and hit a low of $21 just last Monday. Apple reported record earnings again and their share price is tipped to rise when we get a little closer to September. NXP have been pegged as the people to go to if you need NFC chips or secure elements and software, and most people may have forgotten that QualComm and Broadcom both have solutions ready to roll. QualComm in particular have been linked with Apple and its NFC ambitions. Either way, if Apple releases an NFC iPhone 5, iPad 3 or even an NFC iPod, NXP will prosper from other manufacturers who then scramble to keep up with the Jones’.

But will Apple release an NFC iPad 3, iPhone 5 or iPod this year?

Urgh, that question keeps us NFC up at night. Purely from a business perspective, they have to. However, in the wobbly world of Apple the basic laws of the universe sometimes breakdown like quantum physics and seem to go backwards.

Here’s the logic of why Apple needs to launch an NFC iPad 3, iPhone 5 or iPod this year…

Adding NFC to Apple’s products is not like giving the device a better processor or camera. This is a whole industry that requires buy in from banks, credit card companies, trusted service managers and other miscellaneous organizations to facilitate NFC payments. We believe that Apple would not wish to sit back and watch the NFC payments opportunity pass as Nokia has. So, if our logic serves us as well as a Vulcan, it seems to us that Apple would need to conduct a major proof of concept and trial its new software, hardware and partners before it could launch a full suite of NFC payments properly. A trial of that size is not the kind of thing you can do in secret and would require Apple to break its tradition of secrecy because so many people would be involved. If you haven’t got merchants and retailers on board and your payments wouldn’t be accepted anywhere, you may find it an issue to test your system. Google had to do a public trial and so would Apple. It is not too far of a stretch to say that this testing would take between 3 and six months to complete, especially considering this is Apple we are speaking about and accounting for how fastidious they are about the experience and service they provide.

Apple would probably act as its own trusted service manager (TSM) because it already does of sorts with its apps. You have to connect via an account associated with you, which then gives you access to pre-tested and approved apps that only you can download on to your devices, and you probably have your credit card details on file with Apple. This in theory is roughly not so different to the concept of a trusted service manager and we would imagine Apple would see that as a revenue generating opportunity that it is already partially geared up to handle.

If Apple leaves NFC until the iPhone 6, iPad 4 or a different iPod, that could mean a year from September, or as recent rumors suggest Thanksgiving (late November for those of you outside of America) until it launches NFC capable products. Add to that the testing period and that could add up to over a year and a half from today until Apple enters the NFC mobile wallet industry proper. In that time, Google will have been in business for over a year and a half, Isis will have launched and no doubt unleashed a monolithic marketing campaign. The credit card companies will have their own offerings, as Visa is rumored to be bringing its offering online next month. It just doesn’t make sense that Apple would give up that opportunity and not include NFC chips this autumn.

However, as we mentioned a little earlier the laws of the universe sometimes bend when it comes to Apple. So far, we have been assuming that Apple wants to compete in this new marketplace when there is of course an alternative theory that puts the proverbial spanner in the works. Instead of competing in the marketplace, Apple may see itself as the marketplace and that NFC will be nothing but a buzz topic until they weigh in. It is true that the market is young and that it will take time to mature. If Apple thinks it has a profound place in this new NFC industry, it may wait a little longer. But can it be that confident? We think not. We are still calling an NFC Apple fest this fall with NFC mobile wallets and the like following a little later. We can’t get past the rescheduling of product launches including iOS 5 and the other factors we have mentioned in our infographic and in previous posts.

Other Apple rumors this last week in brief

Potential iPhone 5 spotted on a train, see the image below. Pengatron selected to build iPad 3 devices, Foxconn loses out. Ipad 3 may launch around Thanksgiving, iPhone 5 said to launch mid September. HD screen is looking more likely according to sources.

Rumors suggest Apple is potentially looking at buying Barnes and Noble and the Samsung Galaxy S II has been spotted in white. Oh hang on, the Samsung is not an Apple product, they just confuse us as they look so similar, Apple should sue them or something! Yup, it’s looking like Apple may move its LCD business away from Samsung because the Korean company has made a beautiful looking Galaxy iPhone IIs. Stay tuned for the next Apple, NFC, iPhone 5, iPad 3, something, something, rumor fest.