China could exceed $8 billion in mobile payments by 2014

ABI Research has just outed its latest study that shows that China could exceed $8 billion in mobile payments by 2014

It may not come as a huge surprise to many that China could exceed $8 billion in mobile payments by 2014 when you consider the sheer size of the population. Even if you just consider that the country has  868 million mobile subscribers as of the end of March this year, which means each phone would as a mean total spend $9.21 per year which isn’t unrealistic. However, between now and 2014 there are likely to be even more mobile subscribers which could bring those figures down further. ABI research has today released its latest report that looks at China’s emerging mobile payments industry.

Jake Saunders,VP for forecasting at ABI Research notes,“China is a big mobile payments market to play for. There were more than 868 million cellular subscribers as of the end of March 2011.”

China could exceed $8 billion in mobile payments by 2014 if more NFC phones hit the market

The report also looks at how banks and MNOs are currently hustling for position to provide NFC mobile wallets for Chinese citizens to make mobile payments. The report suggests that the mobile network operators may rue the day and that an MNO led business model will prevail. Most of this is semantics, however, because of the lack of NFC phones in the market. The ABI research looks to ZTE and feels that they are likely to be a strong player in the NFC phone market within China. We would add Huawei to that list who are manufacturing better and better phones, are China-based and who have already had success with the Huawei Sonic NFC phone in Turkey. However, WatchData’s SIMpass solution has attracted strong interest from China’s main operators. As a result, more NFC handset add-ons are shipped than NFC-enabled mobile handsets: 2.5 million SIMpass add-ons and 50,000 SD add-ons,versus 45,000 handsets in 2010.

The Chinese government has expressed a preference for an NFC device solution utilizing the 13.56 MHz frequency band which means the NFC Forum standards will apply for payments in China which will bring the country inline with the majority of the world.

China could exceed $8 billion in mobile payments by 2014 , but it could beat that hands down if NFC payments take off as they have in Japan.

Authentec Biometric Fingerprint scanning SDK press release

SINGAPORE–(BUSINESS WIRE)–China could exceed $8 billion in mobile payments by 2014,according to ABI Research forecasts.

In China,however,device manufacturers and operators are keen to move ahead with contactless mobile payment. It will be interesting to see how ZTE,as a local OEM,implements its announced range of NFC smartphones and handsets.The Near Field Communication (NFC) market is moving forward on an uneven front. Google is aggressively supporting the technology through the latest generation of Android handsets from its partners such as Samsung. Nokia is introducing NFC-capable handsets,but the C7 and N9 only support non-secure applications and not contactless payment.

Jake Saunders,VP for forecasting at ABI Research notes,“China is a big mobile payments market to play for. There were more than 868 million cellular subscribers as of the end of March 2011.”

China’s mobile payments industry is burgeoning,attracting many participants wishing to grab first-mover advantage and vie for a bigger slice of the pie. ABI Research estimates that NFC payment transaction values in China could surpass $8 billion by 2014.

Financial institutions (China UnionPay),third party mobile payment service providers,and Mobile Network Operators (China Mobile,China Unicom and China Telecom) are all jostling for position. According to Saunders,“ABI Research believes the mobile payment market in China will largely adopt an MNO-led business model.”

The Chinese government has expressed a preference for an NFC device solution utilizing the 13.56 MHz frequency band. To break the classic chicken-and-egg cycle,there are bridging solutions intended to stimulate the contactless payment market. The principal one is contactless (NFC) SIM cards. WatchData’s SIMpass solution has attracted strong interest from all three operators.

As a result,more NFC handset add–ons are shipped than NFC-enabled mobile handsets:2.5 million SIMpass add-ons and 50,000 SD add-ons,versus 45,000 handsets in 2010.

ABI Research’s “Mobile Payments in China” study, produced by the firm’s Singapore division,provides an overview of the contactless mobile payments ecosystem in China. It also explores the near-term regulatory directives and the payment technology competition among the key players,and points out the potential winners and losers.

It is a component of two ABI Research Services: Asia Intelligence (http://www.abiresearch.com/products/service/Asia_Intelligence_Research_Service),and Mobile Money(http://www.abiresearch.com/products/service/Mobile_Money_Research_Service).

ABI Research provides in-depth analysis and quantitative forecasting of trends in global connectivity and other emerging technologies. From offices in North America,Europe and Asia,ABI Research’s worldwide team of experts advises thousands of decision makers through 40+ research and advisory services. Est. 1990. For more information visit www.abiresearch.com,or call +1.516.624.2500.

Contacts

ABI Research
Christine Gallen,+44.203.326.0142
pr@abiresearch.com

China mobile payments