NFC stocks: Is it no NFC in the iPhone 4S hitting Apples stock price?

If apple stock isn’t overvalued, why are so many fairytales written to justify its price which appears to be in a bubble stage considering its $254 billion increases in capitalization in the last year.  The assumptions made why apple stock is undervalued are unbelievable.  Forecasting future earnings from historical trends are not always accurate, especially when the data is suspect.   It was not long ago the herd believed that house prices could never go down but would continue to increase rapidly year over year.  Just as the apple cheerleaders believe its stock price cannot decline, but will continue to increase.  Many analysts quote Apple’s sales potential growth rates to be 20% or more annually for the next five years to justify why its current share is undervalued.Rarely, is apple net income ever mentioned.   Apples net income from the past five years, from 2007 to  2011 is approximately 56.5 billion.  A major jump in sale and income came in 2010 to 2011 when its net income increased by 11.91 billion.                                   Apples Net income2007            3.50 billion      Net Income growth from previous years.2008            4.83 billion           38.27 % 2009           8.24 billion             70.36%2010           14.01 billion           70.16%2011           25.92 billon             84.99%What is never asked is how a company with a net income of 25.92 billion in 2011 can have achieved capitalization of 565.9 billion.  Apple’s unsustainable income growth is beginning to slow, but this does not stop its promoters from developing deceptive forecast about Apples future growth citing its relatively low market share of worldwide computer, Smartphone and Tablet sales.   One must ask who is paying these analysts for these deceptive forecasts.  Could it be the herd on Wall Street that has mortally damage the US Economy by all the financial instruments which were developed, supposable to limit risk, but were merely another device which allows them to hedge their bets and steal.    I am not surprised that the 70% of Apple’s stock is owned by institutional investors which have created another bubble as there are limited investment alternatives.   Apple stock was primed for this collusion, due to it past growth and the difficulty in evaluating its most important characteristic which is the marketing of its products.   This is an intangible asset,  akin to Goodwill which is very difficult to evaluate    There is a reason,  Apple’s sales  are less  than its competitor and that is due to their products  considerably  higher cost , which  in many cases are functionality no better than their competitors.            I remember my first computer cost over S2500.  Today, a superior system can be bought for less than $400.   This directly related to Apple’s value and alleged income growth potential.   Just as computers, big screen TVs and many other electronic devices have been commoditized, so will apple products if they wish to capture additional market share and stay competitive. It is not likely Apple’s can continue to increase its net income by 85% a year or for that matter by 20% a year for the next five.    Apple’s 2011 net income was approximately 26 billion.  This is a massive amount of money.  An increase of 20% equals 5.2 billion gain in net profit.  This buys quite a few Ipads, downloads and other apple products.   Really, how more Ipads, Ipods and other Apple products can the market absorb without a significant cut in their price.  In addition, the more affluent market have been saturated with apple products, leaving the less capable market the task of buying all though millions products which are forecast to be manufactured and sold by apple in the coming years.   Essentially, a cut in pricing will affect Apple’s bottom line, which is net income.   Net income is very useful in determining an asset or company value.   In addition, the use of net income is a more accurate than utilizing earnings with manipulated PE ratios to determining a value.  It is very likely Apple’s net income will stagnate, due it considerable size, competing products and the fact it will have to lower its pricing to achieve significantly more market share.  Apple average net income over the last 5 years is 11.3 billion.  This income average would typically be utilized to estimate a value.   But let use apple’s most recent report net income which is 32.98 billion.  If a capitalization rate of 10% is used Apple’s value can be estimated by:                                          32.98 Billion / .10 % ≈ 323 billion. Now a price share can be determined by dividing the outstanding share which is approximately 932 million into 323 billion.                                                                      323 billion / 932 million = $363 per shareThis is a more realistic value for Apple’s  as its past growth is not sustainable nor is a significant increase in it net income likely.  How did Apple’s capitalization increase by 254 billion over the last year,  the majority of Apple’s capitalization came from Hedge funds and Money managers who have driven apple stock price to an irrational level s due to their herd likely mentality.  It is not surprising that apple now is offering a dividend and is buying back its stock so that it can keep the stock price artificially high.  But why are they waiting till September to begin the buy back.  Maybe, their analysts see a drop coming and can acquire more shares for the reported 100 billion buy back…  You know Apple is very innovative.  Maybe, Apple stock price can maintain this level for a period time, but it very likely it can’t because its price has been inflated by Speculators that created another Bubble which will eventually hurt the uninformed and possible many retirement funds. My analysis indicates apple current capitalization is overvalued by approximately 200 billion. My advice is to sell apple stock now as it current capitalization is based on intangible asset, and improbable income growth rates.  For all the Dimwits that have recently purchased Apple stock my condolence.     I know my comment will probably fall on deaf ears, but at least I made an effort to bring another perceptive on Apple’s irrational stock price.